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Booming Construction Poses Disinflationary Risks In 2023

US DATA

Total privately-owned housing units under construction rose to a fresh all-time high (in the series going back to 1974) of 1.712mln (annualized) in December, as multi-unit construction reached a new all-time high of 943k.

  • Single-family construction ticked higher by 2k to 769k, but remained below the Apr-May 2022 peak of 828k. Total units under construction picked up in 3 of the 4 U.S. survey regions (pulling back by 2k in the Midwest to 220k).
  • As we noted last year, the large overhang of housing supply set to come on line is one of the factors behind expectations for growing disinflationary pressures as 2023 proceeds.
  • As supply comes onto the market, that could provide relief to rent prices.
  • And with permits pulling back, eventually this construction boom will end. A deteriorating housing market as a whole could pose broader disinflationary effects via the wealth effect and on construction activity and job growth contracting.

Source: Census Bureau, MNI

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