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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
As noted earlier in the session, the housing sector is likely to once again play a central role in broader US economic weakness in 2023.
- Major turns in Building Permits leads turning points in the unemployment rate by around 1.5 years (see chart). Permits peaked at 1.9mln in December 2021, putting a labor market turn sometime in mid-2023.
- The housing sector could prove doubly disinflationary: firstly the downturn could pose broader disinflationary effects via the wealth effect and on construction activity and job growth contracting.
- And secondly, ongoing starts in multifamily units continue to gain with a record number of total housing units currently under construction (1.709mln, unch from Oct - multi-family at a 4-decade high 932k units under construction).
- As supply comes onto the market, that could provide relief to rent prices, which are one of the key categories of inflation eyed by the Fed as it looks to pause the rate hike cycle in early 2022.
Source: BLS, Census Bureau, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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