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Booming Jobs In Stark Contrast To Stalling Growth [1/2]

CANADA DATA
  • The Canadian labour report was far stronger than expected in January, most notably the employment figures.
  • Jobs increased by 150k (cons 15k) after last month’s downward revised 69k, and were primarily driven by full-time positions (+121k).
  • That concentration in full-time positions and sickness-related absenteeism closer to seasonal norms helped see hours worked rise 0.8% M/M, the strongest since May and a positive for monthly GDP growth.
  • Contrary to tepid real GDP growth in 2H22 and an economy expected to see little growth in 1H23, the six-month average of 50k is the highest since July in a surprise upturn from the ~10k of the fall.
  • An equally large jump in the labour force meant that the u/e rate was unchanged despite this strength, although at 5.0% it was a tenth lower than the 5.1% expected and remains just 0.1pp off series lows of 4.9% from the summer.
  • That low level of u/e rate was more impressive considering the participation rate increased 0.3pps to 65.7% back to where it had been in late 21/1H22 and at least pushing back closer to pre-pandemic levels.

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