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BOS: Outlook Turns Negative, Slow Progress In Price Pressures

CANADA DATA
  • Overall confidence in the Business Outlook Survey fell further in Q1 from +0.1 to -1.1, tracking the lowest quarter in 2019 having previously been close to the 2019 average.
  • Inflation expectations showed some improvement but price pressures are clearly still strong.
  • The share of firms expecting inflation above 3% for the next two years fell only slightly from Q4’s record 84% to 79% whilst actual expectations for two-years out eased from 4.2 to 3.9% (back to 1Q22 levels off a high of 4.8% in Q2).
  • The separate Business Leaders’ Pulse, a monthly version within the survey, showed 2-year expectations with some monthly volatility but also trending lower, from 3.1% in Dec to 2.9% most recently as it dipped into the BoC’s 1-3% target range.
  • Wages: consistent with monthly CFIB survey trend, average year-ahead wage increases were seen stabilising at 4.7% Y/Y as the improvement from a peak of 5.8% in Q2 has stalled.


Source: Bank of Canada

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