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Bostic Comments Underline 4.1-4.4% Dot Plot Split

FED

Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic (a non-voter this year), per our Policy Team's writeup of a call he held with reporters this morning, is now in line with the September FOMC meeting's Dot Plot rate median for this year - but as we noted earlier today, his current stance compares much more hawkishly to last month where he summed it up as: "restrictive is somewhere in the 3.5 – 3.75% range. I’m hopeful that we can get there by the end of the year.”

  • Bostic now finds himself in line with the median 4.4% dot, and one of 9 (among 19 total) eyeing that rate, vs 8 who saw 4.1%, i.e. 125bp of hikes in Nov and Dec. See current Dot Plot below.
  • That's a little surprising given that he was seen as one of the more dovish FOMC members this summer.
  • Then again, it may just underline how finely poised the Dot Plot was - 8 members saw 4.1% (100bp of further 2022 hikes).
  • The fine split between 4.1% and 4.4% shows that it's very much a split decision at this stage - two 75bps are only the base case of one member. The next two meetings thus remain up in the air and decisions will very much be data-dependent.
  • End-2022 implied rates are currently priced at 4.21%, likewise splitting the difference.

Source: Federal Reserve September 2022 FOMC Dot Plot

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Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic (a non-voter this year), per our Policy Team's writeup of a call he held with reporters this morning, is now in line with the September FOMC meeting's Dot Plot rate median for this year - but as we noted earlier today, his current stance compares much more hawkishly to last month where he summed it up as: "restrictive is somewhere in the 3.5 – 3.75% range. I’m hopeful that we can get there by the end of the year.”

  • Bostic now finds himself in line with the median 4.4% dot, and one of 9 (among 19 total) eyeing that rate, vs 8 who saw 4.1%, i.e. 125bp of hikes in Nov and Dec. See current Dot Plot below.
  • That's a little surprising given that he was seen as one of the more dovish FOMC members this summer.
  • Then again, it may just underline how finely poised the Dot Plot was - 8 members saw 4.1% (100bp of further 2022 hikes).
  • The fine split between 4.1% and 4.4% shows that it's very much a split decision at this stage - two 75bps are only the base case of one member. The next two meetings thus remain up in the air and decisions will very much be data-dependent.
  • End-2022 implied rates are currently priced at 4.21%, likewise splitting the difference.

Source: Federal Reserve September 2022 FOMC Dot Plot