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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GLOBAL
• Global supply-side shock factors are pulling back, but inflation relief could take a long time.
- Pandemic-related bottlenecks have elevated core inflation with a lag - the chart below shows the NY Fed's GSCPI leading US core CPI's jump by about 12 months.
- The decline in core CPI may be more gradual than a strong pullback in bottlenecks suggests, as the latter primarily impacts goods trade. In the case of the US for example, services inflation remains elevated and in the case of the crucial area of shelter prices, sticky and largely unaffected by goods supply chain relief.
- It's also worth noting that bottleneck improvements are coming amid weaker global demand - so while there may be inflation relief in the pipeline, it's likely to be reflective of economic slowdown/recession and not a "goldilocks" outcome of lower prices/solid growth.
Source: BLS, NY Fed, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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