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Bounce In Mortgage Activity Doesn’t Change Trend Decline

US DATA
  • The composite index rose 7% last week (purchase +7%, refi +9%) after purchase applications in particular fell 27% over the prior four weeks, leaving them still near lows since the 1990s.
  • The renewed trend lower in activity has come as mortgage rates have pushed higher, with the 30Y up more than 80bps since mid-Jan at 6.79% (+8bps on the week) and pushing closer to October highs of almost 7.1%. The move is primarily down to Treasury yields surging [pink line] but also a push higher in spreads [red line].


MBA 30Y rate (white), purchase applications (green), 10Y Tsy yields (pink) and mortgage rate to Tsy spread (red)Source: Bloomberg

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