MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/CAD Trend Outlook Firms
Price Signal Summary – USD/CAD Trend Outlook Firms
- S&P E-Minis started the week on a bullish note with the contract extending the recovery from 5855.00, the Nov 19 low. Recent weakness appears to have been a correction. A bear threat in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains present and short-term gains are considered corrective - for now. A fresh cycle low last week marked a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 30.
- The trend outlook in USDCAD remains bullish and a strong rally today reinforces this theme. The move higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and the move higher marks an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. EURJPY remains soft. The break lower last week cancels a recent short-term bullish reversal signal and suggests scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on 159.56, a Fibonacci retracement.EURGBP attention remains on a bullish engulfing candle pattern from Nov 12 that highlights a possible reversal. The recovery from Friday’s intraday low is also seen as a potential bullish development. Furthermore, the 20- and 50 day EMAs have been pierced.
- A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and Monday’s move lower reinforces this theme. Attention is on $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.04. The long-term trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Price has recovered from its recent lows and Monday’s move lower is - for now - considered corrective.
- Bund futures maintain a firmer tone and the contract traded higher yesterday. Price has traded more convincingly through the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This undermines the recent bearish theme and note that 133.39 has been breached. The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish, however, a corrective cycle is in play and Monday's gains reinforce current bullish conditions. Resistance at 94.73, the Nov 1 high, has been breached.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Trading Above Last Week’s Low
- RES 4: 1.0937 High Nov 5 and key short-term resistance
- RES 3: 1.0783 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.0638 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0530/0610 High Nov 25 / 20
- PRICE: 1.0477 @ 06:05 GMT Nov 26
- SUP 1: 1.0335 Low Nov 22
- SUP 2: 1.0311 1.382 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.0258 1.500 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.0201 61.8% retracement of the Sep 28 - Juk 18 bull leg
A downtrend in EURUSD remains intact, however, Friday’s price pattern - a hammer candle - highlights a possible short-term base and if correct, the start of a corrective cycle. The pair is oversold and a recovery would allow this condition to unwind. Firm resistance to watch is 1.0638, the 20-day EMA. For bears, a move through Friday’s 1.0335 low would resume the downtrend and open 1.0311, a Fibonacci projection.
GBPUSD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows
- RES 4: 1.3175 High Oct 4
- RES 3: 1.3048 High Nov 6 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.2757/2898 20- and 50-day EMA values
- RES 1: 1.2613 High Nov 25
- PRICE: 1.2553 @ 06:15 GMT Nov 26
- SUP 1: 1.2487 Low Nov 22
- SUP 2: 1.2446 Low May 9
- SUP 3. 1.2367 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 ‘23 - Sep 26 uptrend
- SUP 4: 1.2300 Low Apr 22 and a key support
GBPUSD is trading closer to its recent lows. A downtrend remains intact and last week’s move lower confirms a resumption of the trend. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 1.2446, the May 9 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 1.2757 the 20-day EMA. A short-term bounce would be considered corrective and allow an oversold condition to unwind.
EURGBP TECHS: Trading Above Its Recent Lows
- RES 4: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
- RES 2: 0.8404 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 11 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.8360/76 50-day EMA / High Nov 19
- PRICE: 0.8349 @ 06:34 GMT Nov 26
- SUP 1: 0.8260 Low Nov 11 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
- SUP 4: 0.8200 Round number support
EURGBP attention remains on a bullish engulfing candle pattern from Nov 12 that highlights a possible reversal. The recovery from Friday’s intraday low is also seen as a potential bullish development. Furthermore, the 20- and 50 day EMAs have been pierced. A clear break of both averages would strengthen the risk of a reversal and open 0.8404, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support is 0.8260, Nov 11 low. A break of it would resume the downtrend.
USDJPY TECHS: Pierces Support At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 158.68 2.50 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- RES 3: 157.86 High Jul 19
- RES 2: 156.88 2.236 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- RES 1: 155.89/156.75 High Nov 20 / 15 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 154.01 @ 06:53 GMT Nov 26
- SUP 1: 153.70/29 20-day EMA / Low Nov 19
- SUP 2: 151.50 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 149.09 Low Oct 21
- SUP 4: 147.35 Low Oct 8
The USDJPY trend condition is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest short-term pullback is considered corrective. Support to watch is the 20-day EMA, at 153.70. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper short-term corrective pullback and open 151.50, the 50-day EMA. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend and sights are on 156.88 next, a Fibonacci projection.
EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Tone
- RES 4: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 3: 165.04/166.69 High Nov 15 / High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 164.76 High Nov 20 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 163.29 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 161.40 @ 07:07 GMT Nov 26
- SUP 1: 159.93 Low Nov 22
- SUP 2: 159.56 61.8% retracement of the Sep 16 - Oct 31 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 158.11 Low Sep 30
- SUP 4: 157.87 76.4% retracement of the Sep 16 - Oct 31 bull cycle
EURJPY remains soft. The break lower last week cancels a recent short-term bullish reversal signal and suggests scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on 159.56, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 164.76, the Nov 20 high. Clearance of this hurdle would highlight a possible reversal once again and signal the end of the current bearish corrective cycle.
AUDUSD TECHS: Fresh Cycle Low
- RES 4: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 3: 0.6733 High Oct 13
- RES 2: 0.6618/88 50-day EMA / High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 0.6549/50 20-day EMA / High Nov 25
- PRICE: 0.6476 @ 07:59 GMT Nov 26
- SUP 1: 0.6434 Intraday low
- SUP 3: 0.6400 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6350 Low Aug 5 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 2023
A bearish theme in AUDUSD remains intact and today’s fresh cycle low reinforces this condition. The break lower maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for a move towards 0.6350, the Aug 5 low and the next key support. The pair remains below initial firm resistance at 0.6549, the 20-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 1.4278 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4246 2.00 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4196 1.764 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4178 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.4124 @ 08:08 GMT Nov 26
- SUP 1: 1.3942/28 20-day EMA / Low Nov 25
- SUP 2: 1.3836 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
- SUP 4: 1.3747 Low Oct 17
The trend outlook in USDCAD remains bullish and a strong rally today reinforces this theme. The move higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and the move higher marks an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.4196 next. A Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3928, the Nov 25 low.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Bull Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 134.63 High Oct 4
- RES 3: 134.25 High Oct 16 / 18
- RES 2: 134.05 61.8% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 bear leg
- RES 1: 133.71 Intraday high
- PRICE: 133.60 @ 05:44 GMT Nov 26
- SUP 1: 132.88/52 50- and 20-day EMA values
- SUP 2 131.28 Low Nov 14
- SUP 3: 130.58 Low Nov 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 129.99 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
Bund futures maintain a firmer tone and the contract traded higher yesterday. Price has traded more convincingly through the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This undermines the recent bearish theme and note that 133.39 has been breached, the 50.0% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 bear leg. Clearance of this level strengthens a bullish theme and opens 134.05, the 61.8% retracement point. Support to watch lies at 131.28, the Nov 14 low.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 119.949 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - 31 bear leg
- RES 3: 119.620 High Oct 18
- RES 2: 119.519 61.8% retracement of the Oct 1 - 31 bear leg
- RES 1: 119.330 High Oct 24 and Nov 25
- PRICE: 119.240 @ 05:52 GMT Nov 26
- SUP 1: 118.735 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 118.150 Low Nov 14
- SUP 3: 118.680 Low Oct 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 117.570 2.00 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
Recent gains in Bobl futures still appear corrective, however, Friday’s gains highlight an extension of this cycle. The contract has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and attention turns to resistance at 119.330, the Oct 24 high and Monday’s high. Clearance of this level would open 119.515, a Fibonacci retracement level. Key short-term support lies at 118.150, the Nov 14 low. A break of this support would be seen as a bearish development.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Bull Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 107.335 High Oct 1 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 107.225 High Oct 3
- RES 2: 107.108 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - 31 bear leg
- RES 1: 107.070 High Oct 24 and the near-term bull trigger
- PRICE: 106.995 @ 06:11 GMT Nov 26
- SUP 1: 106.811/645 20-day EMA / Low Nov 8
- SUP 2: 106.485 Low Nov 5
- SUP 3: 106.375 Low Oct 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 106.315 1.000 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
Schatz futures traded higher last Friday, marking an extension of the current bull cycle. The contract has cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and attention is on resistance at 107.070, the Oct 24 high. Clearance of this level would expose 107.108, the 76.4% retracement of the bear leg between Oct 1 - 31. A break of 107.108 would also strengthen the current bullish theme. Key S/T support is at 106.645, the Nov 8 low. A breach of it would be bearish.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Corrective Cycle Exposes The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 96.65 High Oct 30
- RES 3: 95.97 38.2% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 6 bear leg
- RES 2: 95.76 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 95.35 High Nov 25
- PRICE: 95.16 @ Close Nov 25
- SUP 1: 94.48 Low Nov 25
- SUP 2: 92.97/53 Low Nov 14 / 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 92.23 2.236 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 4: 92.00 Round number support
The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish, however, a corrective cycle is in play and Monday's gains reinforce current bullish conditions. Resistance at 94.73, the Nov 1 high, has been breached. A continuation higher would expose 95.76, the 50-day EMA. On the downside, a reversal lower would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at 92.53, the Nov 6 low. Clearance of this level resumes the downtrend.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Rally Extends
- RES 4: 123.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 122.62 High Oct 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 122.41 High Oct 18 / 21
- RES 1: 121.50 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 7 bear leg
- PRICE: 121.29 @ Close Nov 25
- SUP 1: 120.32 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 119.63 Low Nov 18
- SUP 3: 119.12 Low Nov 13
- SUP 4: 117.88 Low Nov 7 and a key support
BTP futures traded higher Monday as the contract extends the current bull phase. Gains are still considered corrective, however, the recovery has exposed resistance at 121.50, the 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 7 bear leg. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a full retracement back to 122.62, the Oct 1 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at 119.63, the Nov 18 low. A break of this level would be viewed as a bearish development.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 5015.00 High Oct 21
- RES 3: 5106.00 High Sep 30 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 4961.00 High Nov 6 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 4876.16 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 4773.00 @ 06:22 GMT Nov 26
- SUP 1: 4699.00 Low Nov 19
- SUP 2: 4707.00 Low Aug 9
- SUP 3: 4662.12 .76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4586.00 Low Aug 6
A bear threat in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains present and short-term gains are considered corrective - for now. A fresh cycle low last week marked a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 30. Price has breached 4746.94, 61.8% of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle. This exposes 4662.12, the 76.4% retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 4961.00, the Nov 6 high, where a break would highlight a reversal.
E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 6145.26 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 6103.88 1.500 proj of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 6070.16 1.382 proj of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 6053.25 High Nov 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 6008.25 @ 07:25 GMT Nov 26
- SUP 1: 5934.75 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5855.60 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5814.75 Low Nov 6
- SUP 4: 5724.25 Low Nov 4 and a key support
S&P E-Minis started the week on a bullish note with the contract extending the recovery from 5855.00, the Nov 19 low. Recent weakness appears to have been a correction. Medium-term trend signals such as moving average studies, continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the bull trigger at 6053.25, the Nov 11 high. A break would resume the uptrend. On the downside, key short-term support to watch is 5855.60, the 50-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (F5) Bearish Outlook
- RES 4: $84.90 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $82.40 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $80.55/91 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $76.24 - High Nov 5
- PRICE: $73.22 @ 07:09 GMT Nov 26
- SUP 1: $70.28 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $69.68/68.01 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $66.38 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.90 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
A short-term bearish condition in Brent futures remains intact and Monday’s move lower reinforces this theme. A continuation down would open support at $69.68, the Oct 1 low, and $68.01, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a clearer reversal higher would instead refocus attention on key resistance at $80.55, the Oct 7 high. A breach of this level would resume the recent uptrend. Initial firm resistance to watch is $76.24, the Nov 5 high.
WTI TECHS: (F5) Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $80.25 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $78.03 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $74.83/77.04 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $72.41 - High Nov 7
- PRICE: $69.13 @ 07:21 GMT Nov 26
- SUP 1: $66.32 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $65.74/63.90 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $62.73 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and Monday’s move lower reinforces this theme. Attention is on $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.04, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this level would resume the recent uptrend. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $72.41, the Nov 7 high.
GOLD TECHS: Monitoring Support
- RES 4: $2790.1 - High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $2750.0 - High Nov 5
- RES 2: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
- RES 1: $2655.8/2721.4 - 20-day EMA . High Nov 25
- PRICE: $2616.9 @ 07:29 GMT Nov 26
- SUP 1: $2605.3 - Intraday low
- SUP 2: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
- SUP 3: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
- SUP 4: $2472.0 - Low Sep 4
The long-term trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Price has recovered from its recent lows and Monday’s move lower is - for now - considered corrective, despite it being a very sharp pullback. Resistance to watch is $2721.4, yesterday’s high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development. Key support is $2536.9,Nov 14 low. A break would be bearish.
SILVER TECHS: Short-Term Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 3: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $31.324/537 - 50-day EMA / High Nov 19
- PRICE: 30.218 @ 08:11 GMT Nov 26
- SUP 1: $29.677 - Low Nov 14
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
Medium-term bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and the bear cycle that started on Oct 23 still appears to be a correction. However, the corrective cycle remains in play. Price has recently breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and traded through a trendline drawn from the Aug 8 low. This has exposed $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is $31.324, the 50-day EMA.