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Bracing For GDP

US TSYS

Tsys are off highs but it's been a decidedly risk-off session so far amid fairly disappointing volumes (168k TYUs traded as of 0630ET). Cash curve is flattening and 5-Yr yields are touching fresh lows.

The 2-Yr yield is down 0.8bps at 0.123%, 5-Yr is down 1bps at 0.2421%, 10-Yr is down 1.3bps at 0.5609%, and 30-Yr is down 2.4bps at 1.2118%.

Sep 10-Yr futures (TY) up 4/32 at 139-28 (L: 139-24 / H: 139-30).

With the Fed decision/communications in line with expectations Wednesday (MNI's review will be out shortly), attention remains on Washington, namely fiscal wrangling on Capitol Hill.

Thursday's advance estimate of U.S. Q2 GDP (0830ET). will unearth the depth of the Covid-19 recession, with markets expecting a record-shattering 34.5% annualized drop to follow a 5% decline in Q1 that was the largest fall since 2008.

Initial jobless claims at the same time bears watching following last week's increase (another modest rise is expected).

FOMC blackout is over post-meeting, but no speakers scheduled.

$65bln of 4-/8- week bill sales at 1130ET, NY Fed buying $1.750B of 20s-30s.

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