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BRAZIL: Copom Minutes Due at 1100GMT, September Retail Sales

BRAZIL
EM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsRegion
  • The minutes to last week’s monetary policy meeting when the Copom stepped up the tightening pace with a 50bp hike in the Selic rate to 11.25% will be published at 1100GMT(0600ET). The decision was unanimous, and today’s minutes will be scrutinised for any discussion about the depth of the hiking cycle and about the conditions that would justify a further acceleration in the pace of rate hikes. The full MNI review of the Copom meeting with analyst views is here.
  • Following the minutes, retail sales figures for September are due at 1200GMT(0700ET), with analysts expecting sales growth to slow to 3.7% y/y, from 5.1%.
    • Sept. Retail Sales YoY, est. 3.7%, prior 5.1%
    • Sept. Retail Sales MoM, est. 1.4%, prior -0.3%
    • Sept. Retail Sales Broad YoY, est. 4.8%, prior 3.1%
    • Sept. Retail Sales Broad MoM, est. 2.3%, prior -0.8%
  • In other news, Finance Minister Haddad said yesterday that he would discuss the spending plan with President Lula again on Wednesday, before Lula decides when an announcement on spending cuts will be made. He said that he had met with Lula for one hour on Monday discussing the plan.
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  • The minutes to last week’s monetary policy meeting when the Copom stepped up the tightening pace with a 50bp hike in the Selic rate to 11.25% will be published at 1100GMT(0600ET). The decision was unanimous, and today’s minutes will be scrutinised for any discussion about the depth of the hiking cycle and about the conditions that would justify a further acceleration in the pace of rate hikes. The full MNI review of the Copom meeting with analyst views is here.
  • Following the minutes, retail sales figures for September are due at 1200GMT(0700ET), with analysts expecting sales growth to slow to 3.7% y/y, from 5.1%.
    • Sept. Retail Sales YoY, est. 3.7%, prior 5.1%
    • Sept. Retail Sales MoM, est. 1.4%, prior -0.3%
    • Sept. Retail Sales Broad YoY, est. 4.8%, prior 3.1%
    • Sept. Retail Sales Broad MoM, est. 2.3%, prior -0.8%
  • In other news, Finance Minister Haddad said yesterday that he would discuss the spending plan with President Lula again on Wednesday, before Lula decides when an announcement on spending cuts will be made. He said that he had met with Lula for one hour on Monday discussing the plan.