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Breathing Space for Central Banks

ASIA
  • Yesterday’s rally in Asian currencies reaffirms the position of Asia’s Central Banks ahead of the Federal Reserve decision next month.
  • For many Asian economies, FX reserves are in a strong position and their economic data is stable.
  • Yesterday saw the Bloomberg Asian Dollar Index rise to it’s highest level in several months as Asian currencies rallied. This trends has continued today, although we are away from best levels for most currencies in the region.
  • The Won and Ringgit lead the move higher (both have growth outlooks that are favourable) and the Thai baht rose as political tensions eased in Thailand.
  • With US recession fears fading (Goldman Sachs yesterday reduced their US recession probability from 25% to 20%) and Developed Market Central Banks looking to ease, there is a scenario where Asian currencies strengthen further.
  • This simply provides breathing space for Asian Central Banks who are not forced into making decisions, rather (thanks to their good management) have the luxury to breath.

The upward trend move represents strengthening Asian CurrenciesSource: Bloomberg Asian Dollar Index

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