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BOE: Breeden due to speak on monpol at 16:00GMT

BOE
Bank of EnglandCentral Bank NewsCEEMEABulletUKMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
  • MPC member Sarah Breeden will deliver a speech at 16:00GMT at the University of Edinburgh's Business School.
  • She is due to speak on shocks hitting the UK economy and what they mean for medium-term inflation and more generally the outlook for the UK economy and for monetary policy.
  • Breeden is the BOE's Deputy Governor for Financial Stability (she sits on both the MPC and FPC) and the vast majority of her speeches over recent months have been concerning financial rather than monetary policy.
  • The last substantial comments that we can see from Breeden were back in May when she said that she was more focused on service inflation than wage growth. However, a lot has changed since then and her monpol views are generally assumed to be fairly closely aligned to Governor Bailey and Lombardelli - but there is also a chance that her views could have evolved. Breeden has yet to dissent since joining the MPC.
  • Markets are pricing in around 51bp of cuts for 2025 (earlier today as little as 39bp was priced in). In December Dhingra (who has long voted for sequential 25bp cuts) was joined by Ramsden and Taylor in looking for a 25bp cut immediately, with the other six members (including Breeden) voting for Bank Rate on hold. In November only Mann dissented against a 25bp cut.
  • Looking ahead we still think further 25bp cuts in February and May look likely and it is thought that Bailey, Breeden and Lombardelli are the most important swing members on the MPC (i.e. the most dovish members who didn't vote for a sequential cut in December).
  • If Breeden positions herself on the more dovish side it makes cuts at least quarterly look more likely as only one of Bailey or Lombardelli would need to join Breeden and the current dissenters, whereas if she is less dovish it would likely need both Bailey and Lombardelli to vote for cuts for quorum to be reached.
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  • MPC member Sarah Breeden will deliver a speech at 16:00GMT at the University of Edinburgh's Business School.
  • She is due to speak on shocks hitting the UK economy and what they mean for medium-term inflation and more generally the outlook for the UK economy and for monetary policy.
  • Breeden is the BOE's Deputy Governor for Financial Stability (she sits on both the MPC and FPC) and the vast majority of her speeches over recent months have been concerning financial rather than monetary policy.
  • The last substantial comments that we can see from Breeden were back in May when she said that she was more focused on service inflation than wage growth. However, a lot has changed since then and her monpol views are generally assumed to be fairly closely aligned to Governor Bailey and Lombardelli - but there is also a chance that her views could have evolved. Breeden has yet to dissent since joining the MPC.
  • Markets are pricing in around 51bp of cuts for 2025 (earlier today as little as 39bp was priced in). In December Dhingra (who has long voted for sequential 25bp cuts) was joined by Ramsden and Taylor in looking for a 25bp cut immediately, with the other six members (including Breeden) voting for Bank Rate on hold. In November only Mann dissented against a 25bp cut.
  • Looking ahead we still think further 25bp cuts in February and May look likely and it is thought that Bailey, Breeden and Lombardelli are the most important swing members on the MPC (i.e. the most dovish members who didn't vote for a sequential cut in December).
  • If Breeden positions herself on the more dovish side it makes cuts at least quarterly look more likely as only one of Bailey or Lombardelli would need to join Breeden and the current dissenters, whereas if she is less dovish it would likely need both Bailey and Lombardelli to vote for cuts for quorum to be reached.