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Brent 2024 Forecast Revised to 82.3$/bbl: OIES

OIL

Brent 2023 forecast revised down by 0.8$/bbl to 82.6$/bbl and 2024 by 1.8$/bbl to 82.3$/bbl according to the latest OIES monthly oil report. Downside risk at the start of 2024 on negative demand pressures and/or patchy OPEC+ compliance, but upside risk from Q2 on central banks and OPEC+ potential policy actions.

  • The 4Q23 price lowered by 3.2$/bbl to 84$/bbl as expectations of a large deficit moderated due to a robust non-OPEC supply. Brent prices are expected in the 75-85$/bbl range next year after a rebound to 83.3$/bbl in Q1 supported by the deeper OPEC+ cuts and a deficit of 350kb/d.
  • 2024 is expected near balanced with a small 130kb/d deficit compared to a 570kb/d surplus forecast previously. Q2 is forecast at a 230kb/d deficit, with Q3 near balance and a small 100 kb/d surplus in Q4. A gradual phase-out of the 1.7mb/d OPEC+ cuts is assumed in Q2.
  • Global oil demand growth forecast raised 220kb/d to 1.4mb/d in 2024 on easing downside risks and concentrated in non-OECD. Non-OECD demand growth normalizing to the 2010-19 average (1.4 mb/d), but OECD growth is expected 140kb/d below the pre-COVID average.
  • Global oil supply to grow by 1.5mb/d in 2023 and 1.3mb/d in 2024 with OPEC-10 production growth revised from 560kb/d to -210kb/d. Non-OPEC supply growth little changed at 940 kb/d driven by US and Brazil.
Energy BulletsCommodities
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