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Brent Could Rise to $90/bbl Under a Bullish Scenario: Citi

OIL

Brent could rise to $90/bbl if Middle East disruption spreads amid escalating tensions according to a bullish scenario from Citigroup.

  • Attacks in the Middle East may cause “enough disruption and uncertainty that an oil price pop could take place,” but looser fundamentals will act as a counterweight.
  • The base-case outlook is for a Brent forecast of $80/bbl.
  • Demand growth is forecast at 1.3mb/d in 2024, but dips to 700kb/d in 2025.
  • “This deceleration in demand growth is one of the key factors, along with strong non-OPEC+ supply growth and weak OPEC+ production cut compliance, that should loosen up market fundamentals.”

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