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Brent/Dubai Turns Negative to Support Asia Interest in Atlantic Crude

OIL

The Brent/Dubai EFS spread has this month narrowed to the lowest since 2020 due to OPEC+ voluntary production cuts and higher US availability pushing down the Northwest Europe market. The July Brent-Dubai swap fell to -10c/bbl according to Bloomberg Fair Value data.

  • Concerns for the impact of further central bank interest rate hikes amid persistent inflation could also dampen growth and fuel demand in the US and Europe.
  • Expectations of tighter supply of Middle Eastern crude due to the voluntary production cuts from Saudi Arabia in July and potentially beyond are adding upside pressure to Dubai crude compared to Brent. Saudi Arabia is likely to set the August OSPs next week and high prices could encourage further Asian demand for US, European and West African crude.
  • Asia's demand for sweet crude priced off Brent produced in the Atlantic Basin and Brazil has increased with the grades more attractive than some Middle Eastern grades for Asian refiners. The recent uptick in supertanker freight rates could raise costs for such shipments.


Source: Bloomberg

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