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Brent to Average 77$/bbl in 2024 on Softer Oil Balance: Macquarie

OIL

Brent crude is forecast to average 77$/bbl in 2024 and WTI expected at 72.88$/bbl over 2024, amid softer balances according to Macquarie Group Ltd.

  • Global demand growth is forecast at 1.2mb/d in 2024 down from 2.4mb/d in 2023.
  • US supply is forecast to rise to 14mb/d by 4Q 2024 with Saudi Arabia supply back to 10mb/d in August next year and Russia supply at 10.4mb/d next year.
  • “After a period of sustained positive sentiment, we believe the market is providing clear signals that should check the conviction of bulls.”
  • Deeper cuts from Saudi Arabia wouldn’t be a shock amid a potential surplus, as production from the country remains the key swing factor for oil balances in 2024.
  • “That said, upcoming capacity expansions in 2025, questionable effectiveness of existing policy, and the results of the latest OPEC+ meeting point to an eventual off-ramp for Saudi cuts.”

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