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GILT SUMMARY: Brexit negotiations have now reached the next key milestone. A
working agreement has been reached in principal at the technical level and PM
Theresa May must now get her cabinet onside. The key sticking point is still the
proposed Irish backstop measure and whether Brexiteers will back it.
- The market will be watching for any cabinet resignations. Top of the watch
list are Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom. May's team is
supposedly prepared for several resignations and these MPs are the most likely
to go. A more damaging loss would be Brexit negotiator Dominic Raab, who took
over from David Davis (who had previously resigned over the direction of Brexit
negotiations). Conversely if Raab stays the course, that would be a relatively
bullish sign for May.
- Gilts have been particularly volatile. The 10-year sold off in the early
morning before rallying hard and then giving back some gains over the past half
an hour. The 10-year trades at 1.482% off a morning low of 1.464%. The 2s10s has
narrowed to 70.7bps from a high of 73.8bps.
- The short sterling futures strip is 1.0-2.0 ticks higher.