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CONSUMER STAPLES: British American Tobacco; 4Q (to Dec) results

CONSUMER STAPLES
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(BATSLN; Baa1/BBB+/BBB+)

Co has reported +1% growth and is guiding to the same this year. It is complaining about the rise in illicit vape sales but we'd only note its reporting 1.2ppt falls in legal vape market share. We think it has no one to blame but itself - it generates the same FCF as PM (~$10b) but is spending $600-700m in capex including investments into smokeless - less than half of PM at $1.5b. It is not the only one - Altria is guiding to $175-225m in capex after sending $10b to equity holders. End of the day this is tobacco - technicals likely to remain in the driver seat, but for those eyeing carry we see Imperial as on better footing for this year and US only, Altria as better set-up for medium term (Trump is Tobacco friendly). No quarterly but a trading update should come in early June.

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(BATSLN; Baa1/BBB+/BBB+)

Co has reported +1% growth and is guiding to the same this year. It is complaining about the rise in illicit vape sales but we'd only note its reporting 1.2ppt falls in legal vape market share. We think it has no one to blame but itself - it generates the same FCF as PM (~$10b) but is spending $600-700m in capex including investments into smokeless - less than half of PM at $1.5b. It is not the only one - Altria is guiding to $175-225m in capex after sending $10b to equity holders. End of the day this is tobacco - technicals likely to remain in the driver seat, but for those eyeing carry we see Imperial as on better footing for this year and US only, Altria as better set-up for medium term (Trump is Tobacco friendly). No quarterly but a trading update should come in early June.

Keep reading...Show less