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BRL Extends Losses Amid Greenback Strength, Dovish BCB Minutes

BRAZIL
  • Following the clearer acknowledgement that an easing cycle may begin at the BCB’s August meeting, the Brazilian real has been underperforming regional peers. Today’s moderate greenback strength has exacerbated moves at the open, with USDBRL rising as much as 0.75% to around 4.85 at typing.
  • Citi have noted that amid the BRL underperformance during Tuesday's session, poor rates and equities suggests that there is also some risk reduction heading into the CMN meeting on Thursday. For now, their economists retain their call for a September 50bps hike, preferring to wait until the inflation report is published this Thursday. For now, Citi remain neutral on BRL.
  • Price is currently testing initial resistance at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 4.8476. Stronger resistance is at 4.9279, the 50-day EMA. A resumption of downward pressure would place the focus on 4.7490, the Jun 6 2022 low and 4.6910, the May 30 2022 low.
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