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NEW ZEALAND: Broad-Based Contraction Likely To Mean Another 50bp Cut

NEW ZEALAND
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Q3 NZ GDP printed significantly below consensus and the RBNZ’s November forecast of -0.2% q/q and domestic banks at -0.4%. The production-based measure fell 1% q/q after a downwardly-revised Q2 at -1.1% leaving the annual rate 1.5% y/y lower. Expenditure GDP fell 0.8% q/q in both Q2 and Q3 to be down 1% y/y. Q2 domestic demand was revised sharply lower. There are still Q3 CPI (January 22) and jobs/wages (February 5) to come, but with data like this another 50bp rate cut looks likely on February 19.

NZ GDP production %

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Q3 NZ GDP printed significantly below consensus and the RBNZ’s November forecast of -0.2% q/q and domestic banks at -0.4%. The production-based measure fell 1% q/q after a downwardly-revised Q2 at -1.1% leaving the annual rate 1.5% y/y lower. Expenditure GDP fell 0.8% q/q in both Q2 and Q3 to be down 1% y/y. Q2 domestic demand was revised sharply lower. There are still Q3 CPI (January 22) and jobs/wages (February 5) to come, but with data like this another 50bp rate cut looks likely on February 19.

NZ GDP production %

Keep reading...Show less