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Broad Based Gains, But SEA Outperforming NEA

ASIA FX

Asia FX is firmer across the board, with the ADXY back above 101.00, although it remains sub earlier highs in the week near 101.35. A number of pairs have already slumped to multi-week lows, although this is more so in South East Asia (SEA) than North East Asia (NEA). The catalyst for Asian FX gains has been the pull back in US cash Tsy yields from intra-day highs, while the regional equity tone remains a positive one, led by gains in HK/China shares.

  • USD/CNH is back to the 6.8700 region, but we remain above Monday session lows near 6.8300. The CSI 300 is up around ~1.5%, rebounding nicely off the simple 100-day MA.
  • 1 month USD/KRW was last around 1297/98, not too far off recent lows near 1293. Spot USD/TWD is down but not making much headway sub 30.60.
  • USD/SGD is back near 1.3420, around 10pips off lows for the week. USD/PHP is back to 54.65, already at fresh multi-week lows, likewise for USD/THB, last at 34.20.
  • USD/MYR is around 4.4800, but we did see levels sub 4.4700 earlier in the week. USD/IDR is around 15355, a move below 15345 would be fresh lows for the week.
  • USD/INR has opened up softer near 82.55, still well above earlier lows sub 81.80 recorded on Monday.
  • A sense that we may be getting closer towards the end of tightening cycles for major central banks and less exposure to the global banking fallout may be seeing SEA outperform NEA at the margins.

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