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Broad-Based Retail Weakness Has Hint Of Higher Rates Sensitivity

US DATA
Today's weaker-than-expected advance Dec retail sales print contained negative-to-flat numbers across the board - see the table below.
  • Weakness was led by furniture, gasoline sales, and department stores, with nonstore retailers, motor vehicles and restaurants also firmly negative.
  • Some of the larger categories were merely flat on the month (food/beverage stores represent roughly one-eighth of retail sales).
  • The weakness in this report partly reflects lower prices in December as opposed to simply volumes (eg gasoline sales -4.6% M/M, vs gasoline CPI -9.4%) but that is not a clear case (restaurant sales -0.9% vs +0.4% for "food away from home in the CPI report).
  • And while the decline in motor vehicle sales can probably be partly ascribed to car price deflation, the broad swathe of negative categories - including furniture, and another weak building materials reading - conveys a hint of cyclical categories being hurt by sensitivity to higher interest rates

Source: Census Bureau

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