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EUROPEAN INFLATION: Broad-based services deceleration seen in Italy HICP

EUROPEAN INFLATION
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  • Italian HICP was a tenth below consensus on a Y/Y basis at 1.7% in February (cons 1.8%, 1.7% prior). The M/M print was in line with consensus at +0.1% (prior -0.8%).
  • As expected there were increases in both energy to +0.6%Y/Y in February (from -0.7% in January) and FAT (food, alcohol, tobacco) to 2.6%Y/Y (from 2.3%).
  • Like in France, there was a deceleration in services inflation to +2.6%Y/Y (+2.9% in both January and February). This is the lowest services HICP print in Italy since April 2022. This appears to be fairly broad-based (see table below).
  • Core goods (NEIG) also decelerated to -0.1%Y/Y (from +0.1% prior).
  • This translates to core CPI (under the Eurostat measure of excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) falling 0.3ppt to 1.5%Y/Y from 1.8%Y/Y while under the Istat definition: excluding energy and unprocessed food) it has remained stable at 1.8%Y/Y.
  • Looking at national NIC inflation, there was a larger increase than expected of 0.2ppt to 1.7%Y/Y (1.6% cons, 1.5% prior).
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  • Italian HICP was a tenth below consensus on a Y/Y basis at 1.7% in February (cons 1.8%, 1.7% prior). The M/M print was in line with consensus at +0.1% (prior -0.8%).
  • As expected there were increases in both energy to +0.6%Y/Y in February (from -0.7% in January) and FAT (food, alcohol, tobacco) to 2.6%Y/Y (from 2.3%).
  • Like in France, there was a deceleration in services inflation to +2.6%Y/Y (+2.9% in both January and February). This is the lowest services HICP print in Italy since April 2022. This appears to be fairly broad-based (see table below).
  • Core goods (NEIG) also decelerated to -0.1%Y/Y (from +0.1% prior).
  • This translates to core CPI (under the Eurostat measure of excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) falling 0.3ppt to 1.5%Y/Y from 1.8%Y/Y while under the Istat definition: excluding energy and unprocessed food) it has remained stable at 1.8%Y/Y.
  • Looking at national NIC inflation, there was a larger increase than expected of 0.2ppt to 1.7%Y/Y (1.6% cons, 1.5% prior).
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