NORWAY
Norwegian CPI-ATE inflation momentum (3m/3m seasonally adjusted annualised rate using Stats Norway data) accelerated to 4.03% in February, up from 3.51% in January and 3.10% in December. It’s the fourth consecutive acceleration, coming at a time when Norges Bank is gearing up to begin its easing cycle. Nordea have removed their call for a March cut following the data.
- Sequential SA CPI-ATE prices rose 0.61% M/M, the firmest reading since October 2023. On an NSA basis, prices rose 0.99% M/M (vs 0.5% cons).
- Annual CPI-ATE inflation was 3.43% Y/Y (vs 2.9% cons, 2.7% Norges, 2.82% prior).
- Services inflation accelerated to 4.04% Y/Y (vs 3.19% prior), driven by ex-rent categories (3.77% vs 3.36% prior). Rents also ticked up to 4.25% (vs 4.18% prior). Statistics Norway notes that restaurants, communications and some transport services were important drivers here. Air travel can often be volatile, while boat fares were sharply higher on a base effect (prices fell 18.8% M/M last February due to a government policy). As such, there may be some reversal next month.
- Food prices were also seasonably strong, rising 7.49% Y/Y (vs 4.96% prior). Similar upside in food prices was likely seen in Sweden in February.
- Meanwhile, imported goods remain well-above Norges Bank projections at 1.11% (0.3% Norges, 1.21% prior).
- Headline inflation was 3.55% Y/Y (vs 2.6% cons and Norges, 2.35% prior). Base effects saw electricity inflation at 7.1% Y/Y.
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