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Broad Based USD Weakness Approaching The Week’s Close

FOREX
  • The USD index sits 0.35% lower on the session as a rebound in equity indices helped bolster risk sentiment in global markets. As such, the likes of EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD and CAD are all on the front foot to finish the week. Relative underperformance has been seen for the low yielding Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen.
  • Friday’s price action for GBPUSD has affirmed the underlying bullish trend condition and short-term pullbacks are now considered corrective at these levels. Spot has extended the recent breach of 1.2634 and again opened 1.2754, 76.4% of the Mar 8 - Apr 22 bear leg. This level was pierced Wednesday, but a clear break would expose 1.2803, the Mar 21 high.
  • Participants also remain aware of the 0.8500 handle in EURGBP marking an important support over the past 18 months. The cross has failed to close below 0.8500 since August 2022, with several tests over the past year being well respected. Note that the exact key support and bear trigger lies at 0.8493, and a sustained breach of this point would be required to enhance bearish momentum for the cross.
  • EURUSD’s recovery today leaves the pair just moderately in the red on the week. The corrective move lower in EURUSD continues to ease and appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern that reinforces the uptrend. Sights are on 1.0933 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.0789, the 50-day EMA.
  • Potential comments from BOJ Governor Ueda and German IFO data highlight Monday’s calendar. Elsewhere next week, the focus will be on Australian and Eurozone inflation data as well as the second release of US Q1 GDP.
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