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Broad Greenback Weakness Extends, EUR Surges Ahead Of ECB

  • The US Dollar saw another wave of weakness in early European hours, with the price action reminiscent of the greenback dip after the US equity open on Tuesday. Weakness stretched into the remainder of Wednesday’s session with the USD index approximately 1.15% lower on the day.
  • Chinese Yuan strength has been notable, with USDCNH over 2% below the day’s highs. The price action will raise suspicion of intervention via state-run banks as we've seen in recent weeks - particularly after the pair hit record highs this week and the Chinese authorities conducted a survey of banks to gauge both positioning and market sentiment toward the currency. Redback strength has filtered through to the likes of AUD and NZD with the latter rising to a one-month high against the USD.
  • EURUSD has also extended its recovery following multiple breaches of resistance through parity and then 1.0051, the Sep 20 high, trading close to most recent highs of 1.0086 approaching the APAC crossover.
  • Topside momentum has been gaining traction following the pair breaking above the notable 2022 channel resistance on Tuesday. Given the current price action and tomorrow’s ECB meeting in focus, it is worth noting the next level on the topside at 1.0198, the Sep 12 high and a key resistance. Short-term support now resides at October 4th’s high of 0.9999 that, as noted, was an acceleration point during European hours.
  • CAD underperformed following a smaller than expected 50BP rate hike from the BoC, however, the broad-based USD weakness still weighed on the pair overall, 0.35% lower on the day.
  • Following the ECB rate decision on Thursday, we also have the release of Advanced US GDP for Q3.

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