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Free AccessBroad Risk Off Weighs On BRL At Open, Inflation Data Eyed
- USDBRL a touch higher to start the week around 5.4750 on pressures from geopolitical tensions affecting broader risk sentiment.
- However, the currency pair has recently broken lower, confirming a resumption of the current bear leg and maintaining a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 5.3885 next (probed on Thursday), the Nov 11 low.
- Wednesday’s mid-month IPCA headline inflation data is expected to have dipped to 10.05% from 10.42%. The next Copom meeting is on February 2nd.
- Brazil’s official gazette showed government signed into law the 2022 budget with a deficit of 79.3 billion reais; spending cap forecast considered in the law is 1.7 trillion reais.
- President Bolsonaro said he vetoed 2.8 billion reais ($514 million) from this year’s budget, newspaper O Estado de Sao Paulo reported, citing remarks to reporters in the town of Eldorado.
- The vetoed amount came from expenditures earmarked for the executive branch and also congressional commission amendments.
- Bolsonaro is working to have congress approve a constitutional amendment that would allow fuel tax reductions and if that bill should pass, the President aims to eliminate federal diesel tax. (Bloomberg)
- Latest BCB Focus Survey Downgrades 2023 Growth Projection:
- Brazil economists forecast 5.15% 2022 inflation; prior 5.09%
- Brazil economists forecast 3.40% 2023 inflation; prior 3.40%
- Brazil economists forecast 0.29% 2022 GDP; prior 0.29%
- Brazil economists forecast 1.69% 2023 GDP; prior 1.75%
- Brazil economists see 11.75% 2022 year-end selic; prior 11.75%
- *Separately, the Brazilian cities of Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo announced on Friday they are postponing colorful Carnival parades to the end of April, due to an increase in COVID-19 cases as Omicron spreads through the country. (BBG)
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.