MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Eurostoxx Extends Bull Cycle
Price Signal Summary – Eurostoxx Marks Extension of Bull Cycle
- A bullish theme S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 5721.25, the Jul 16 high. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher Thursday, marking an extension of the bull cycle that started Aug 5. The break higher means that all key retracement points of the Jul 12 - Aug 5 bear leg have been cleared.
- Bullish conditions in GBPUSD remain intact and the latest shallow pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains reinforce a bullish condition and this maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. USDJPY is unchanged and continues to trade below the Aug 15 high and the 20-day EMA. The trend structure remains bearish and moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up. A stronger reversal lower would open key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low. A bull cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair is holding on to its latest gains. The most recent move higher has resulted in a print above 0.6799, the Jul 11 / Aug 23 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish theme.
- Trend conditions in Gold are unchanged and remain bullish. The recent breach of $2483.7, the Jul 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies are still in a bull-mode set-up and this highlights a dominant uptrend. WTI futures have recovered this month from their early August lows. More recently, the contract traded sharply higher Monday before pulling back. A stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at $78.54, the Aug 12 high.
- Bund futures are trading at their recent lows and just below the 20-day EMA. Short-term weakness still appears to be corrective and this is allowing the recent overbought condition to unwind. The next support to watch lies at 133.39, the 50-day EMA. Gilt futures traded lower again, Thursday. This week’s move lower has resulted in a breach of support at 98.79, the Aug 12 low. The break lower highlights scope for a deeper retracement near-term that opens 98.37, a Fibonacci projection.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 1.1300 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.1276 High Jul 18 2023
- RES 2: 1.1234 1.618 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
- RES 1: 1.1140/1202 High Aug 29 / High Aug 26 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.1074 @ 06:07 BST Aug 30
- SUP 1: 1.1047 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.0948 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.0778 Low Aug 1 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.0736 Low Jul 3
This week’s move lower in EURUSD appears corrective and a bullish theme remains intact. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a rising trend. A resumption of gains would open 1.1234 next, a Fibonacci projection. The trend is overbought, a deeper pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Key short-term support to watch is 1.1047, the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Shallow Correction
- RES 4: 1.3425 1.764 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3362 1.618 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
- RES 2: 1.3328 76.4% retrace of the Jun 2021 - Sep 2022 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3266 High Aug 27
- PRICE: 1.3167 @ 06:18 BST Aug 30
- SUP 1: 1.3146 Low Aug 29
- SUP 2: 1.3077 Low Aug 22
- SUP 3: 1.3019 20-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.2899 50-day EMA
Bullish conditions in GBPUSD remain intact and the latest shallow pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains reinforce a bullish condition and this maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a rising trend. Sights are on 1.3328, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm support is at 1.3019, the 20-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 0.8625 High Aug 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 0.8593 High Aug 14
- RES 2: 0.8545 High Aug 21 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 0.8437/8486 High Aug 28 / 20-Day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8412 @ 06:43 BST Aug 30
- SUP 1: 0.8403 Low Aug 29
- SUP 2: 0.8383 Low Jul 17 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.8340 Low Aug 2 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8311 3.00 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
EURGBP remains in a bear-mode condition and this week’s extension reinforces the bearish significance of the recent break of the 50-day EMA. Furthermore, the cross has cleared all key retracement points of the rally between Jul 17 - Aug 8. This undermines a recent bullish theme and exposes 0.8383, the Jul 17 low and a key support. Firm resistance is seen at 0.8486, the 20-day EMA.
USDJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 153.88 High Jul 31
- RES 3: 150.61 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 149.39 High Aug 15
- RES 1: 146.91 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 144.88 @ 06:55 BST Aug 30
- SUP 1: 143.45 Low Aug 26
- SUP 2: 141.70/140.82 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger / Low Jan 2
- SUP 3: 140.25 Low Dec 28 ‘23 and a key support
- SUP 4: 138.07 Low Dec 28
USDJPY is unchanged and continues to trade below the Aug 15 high and the 20-day EMA. The trend structure remains bearish and moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up. A stronger reversal lower would open key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear trend. Key near-term resistance is seen at 146.91, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a stronger correction.
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 167.53 Low Jun 14
- RES 3: 164.82 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 164.06 200 DMA
- RES 1: 163.89 High Aug 15
- PRICE: 160.54 @ 08:06 BST Aug 30
- SUP 1: 159.79 Low Aug 12
- SUP 2: 157.30/154.42 Low Aug 6 / 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
- SUP 4: 153.23 Low Dec 7 ‘23 and a key support
The trend outlook in EURJPY is bearish and this is reinforced by moving average studies that remain in a bull-mode set-up. The recovery that started Aug 5 has allowed an oversold condition to unwind. The cross has pierced resistance the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would expose resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 164.82. For bears, a stronger reversal lower would signal the end of the correction and open 154.42, the Aug 5 low.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Theme
- RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 ‘23
- RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.6839 High Jan 2
- RES 1: 0.6824 High Aug 29
- PRICE: 0.6806 @ 08:02 BST Aug 30
- SUP 1: 0.6700/6661 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 0.6571 Low Aug 15
- SUP 3: 0.6508/6350 Low Aug 8/ 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10’23
A bull cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair is holding on to its latest gains. The most recent move higher has resulted in a print above 0.6799, the Jul 11 / Aug 23 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish theme and pave the way for an extension towards 0.6871, the Dec 28 ‘23 high and the next key resistance. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.6700, the 20-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Trend Direction Remains Down
- RES 4: 1.3739 High Aug 15
- RES 3: 1.3670 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.3616 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3519 High August 26
- PRICE: 1.3480 @ 08:04 BST Aug 30
- SUP 1: 1.3441 Low Aug 28
- SUP 2: 1.3420 Low Mar 8
- SUP 3: 1.3358 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 - Aug 5 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5
USDCAD bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is trading at its recent lows. The latest impulsive sell-off reinforces the current bearish condition and moving average studies are unchanged and remain in a bear-mode set-up. Furthermore, 1.3589, the Jul 11 low, has recently been cleared, strengthening a bearish theme. Sights are on 1.3358, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 1.3616,the 20-day EMA.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (U4) Trading Above Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 136.99 3.382 projection of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 1 price swing
- RES 3: 136.45 76.4% of the Dec 27 - May 31 downleg (cont)
- RES 2: 136.28 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 135.17/135.59 High Aug 14 / 6
- PRICE: 133.92 @ 05:47 BST Aug 30
- SUP 1: 133.66 Low Aug 27
- SUP 2: 133.39 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 132.08 Low Jul 26
- SUP 4: 131.62 Low Jul 22 and a key support
Bund futures are trading at their recent lows and just below the 20-day EMA. Short-term weakness still appears to be corrective and this is allowing the recent overbought condition to unwind. The next support to watch lies at 133.39, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on 136.45, a Fibonacci retracement. First resistance is 135.17, the Aug 14 high.
BOBL TECHS: (U4) Corrective Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 119.730 2.00 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
- RES 3: 119.234 1.764 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
- RES 2: 119.090 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 118.300/118.530 High Aug 14 / 6
- PRICE: 117.740 @ 05:49 BST Aug 30
- SUP 1: 117.550 Low Aug 27
- SUP 2: 117.310/116.700 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26
- SUP 3: 116.320 Low Jul 22
- SUP 4: 115.980 Low Jul 10 / 11
Bobl futures continue to trade within a range. The uptrend is intact and the pullback from the Aug 5 high appears to be a correction. The move down has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains resulted in a breach of a key resistance at 117.160, Jun 14 high. This break reinforces the bull theme. First resistance is 118.300, the Aug 14 high. Firm support is 117.326 the 50-day EMA.
SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Support At The 20-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 107.120 2.00 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
- RES 3: 106.916 1.764 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
- RES 2: 106.500/106.810 High Aug 6 / 5 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 106.360 High Aug 22
- PRICE: 106.280 @ 05:58 BST Aug 30
- SUP 1: 106.211 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 106.041/105.820 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26
- SUP 3: 105.630/495 Low Jul 22 / 11
- SUP 4: 105.390 Low Jul 5 and a key support
Schatz futures are unchanged and remain in consolidation mode. An uptrend is intact and recent weakness is considered corrective. For now, the contract continues to trade above a firm support at 106.211, the 20-day EMA. It has recently been pierced, a clear break of this EMA would be seen as an early bearish threat. Support at the 50-day EMA, lies at 106.041. Initial resistance is at 106.360, the Aug 22 high. A break would signal a potential reversal.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Retracement Mode Extends
- RES 4: 101.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 100.30 High Aug 14
- RES 2: 99.85 High Aug 22
- RES 1: 99.21 High Aug 27
- PRICE: 98.49 @ Close Aug 29
- SUP 1: 98.44 Low Aug 27
- SUP 2: 98.37 1.236 proj of the Aug 14 - 16 - 22 price swing
- SUP 3: 98.19 1.382 proj of the Aug 14 - 16 - 22 price swing
- SUP 4: 98.00 Round number support
Gilt futures traded lower again, Thursday. This week’s move lower has resulted in a breach of support at 98.79, the Aug 12 low. The break lower highlights scope for a deeper retracement near-term that opens 98.37, a Fibonacci projection. The trend condition remains up and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. A reversal higher would signal the end of the corrective phase. First key resistance to monitor is 99.85, the Aug 22 high.
BTP TECHS: (U4) Pullback Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 121.25 2.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
- RES 3: 120.85 2.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
- RES 2: 120.20 2.00 proj of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
- RES 1: 120.00/06 Psychological round number / High Aug 22
- PRICE: 118.92 @ Close Aug 29
- SUP 1: 118.37 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 117.36 Low Jul 26
- SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8
- SUP 4: 114.72 Low Jul 2
The medium-term trend condition in BTP futures remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and a bullish trend sequence of higher highs and higher lows is intact. The latest pullback has resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA. A firmer support lies at 118.37, the 50-day EMA. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 120.06, the Aug 22 high.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 5132.00 High Jun 6
- RES 3: 5087.00 High Jul 12 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 5012.00 High Jul 16
- RES 1: 4997.00 High Jul 17
- PRICE: 4964.00 @ 06:20 BST Aug 30
- SUP 1: 4866.04 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 4742.00 Low Aug 15
- SUP 3: 4665.00/4494.00 Low Aug 9 / 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 4478.81 2.236 proj of the Jun 6 - 14 - Jul 12 price swing
Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher Thursday, marking an extension of the bull cycle that started Aug 5. The break higher means that all key retracement points of the Jul 12 - Aug 5 bear leg have been cleared. Sights are on 4997.00 next, the Jul 17 high, where a breach would open 5087.00, the Jul 12 high. Initial firm support to watch is seen at 4866.04, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a corrective pullback.
E-MINI S&P: (U4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 5821.25 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: 5800.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5721.25 High Jul 16 and Key resistance
- RES 1: 5669.00 High Aug 26
- PRICE: 5624.25 @ 07:19 BST Aug 30
- SUP 1: 5561.25/5512.95 Intraday low / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5438.75/5319.50 Low Aug 14 / 9
- SUP 3: 5182.00 Low Aug 8
- SUP 4: 5120.00 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
A bullish theme S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 5721.25, the Jul 16 high. A break would resume the primary uptrend. Support to watch lies at 5512.95, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of it is required to instead highlight a potential bearish threat. The latest move lower appears corrective.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (X4) Key Resistance Remains Exposed For Now
- RES 4: $87.64 - High Apr 12 and a medium-term bull trigger
- RES 3: $86.24 - High Jul 5
- RES 2: $83.50 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 1: $80.53/81.46 - High Aug 26 / 12 and key resistance
- PRICE: $79.13 @ 07:07 BST Aug 30
- SUP 1: $74.62 - Low Aug 5 and a key support
- SUP 2: $74.64 - Low Feb 5
- SUP 3: $73.16 - Low Dec 13 2023 and a key support
- SUP 4: $70.35 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Brent futures traded sharply higher Monday, marking an extension of the rebound from the Aug 21 low. The contract has since pulled back but is again moving higher. A stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $81.46, the Aug 12 high. A break would highlight a stronger reversal. For bears, a steeper reversal lower would instead expose $74.62, the Aug 5 low and key support.
WTI TECHS: (V4) Watching Resistance
- RES 4: $83.45 - High Apr 12 and a medium-term bull trigger
- RES 3: $82.62 - High Jul 5
- RES 2: $80.82 - High Jul 18
- RES 1: $78.54 - High Aug 12 and key resistance
- PRICE: $76.20 @ 07:14 BST Aug 30
- SUP 1: $73.82/70.88 - Low Aug 28 / Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $70.43 - Low Feb 5
- SUP 3: $68.92 - Low Dec 13 2023
- SUP 4: $66.66 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
WTI futures have recovered this month from their early August lows. More recently, the contract traded sharply higher Monday before pulling back. A stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at $78.54, the Aug 12 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger bullish reversal. For bears, an extension lower would once again expose the $70.88 key support, Aug 5 low.
GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: $2600.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $2575.4 - 3.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 ‘23 price swing
- RES 2: $2536.4 - 1.50 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: $2531.8 - High Aug 20
- PRICE: $2516.5 @ 07:18 BST Aug 30
- SUP 1: $2479.7 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $2431.0/2353.2 50-day EMA / Low Jul 25
- SUP 3: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7
- SUP 4: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
Trend conditions in Gold are unchanged and remain bullish. The recent breach of $2483.7, the Jul 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies are still in a bull-mode set-up and this highlights a dominant uptrend. The focus is on a climb towards $2536.4 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at $2479.7, the 20-day EMA. Short-term weakness would be considered corrective.
SILVER TECHS: Corrective Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
- RES 3: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
- RES 2: $31.754/32.518 - High Jul 11 / High May 20 and bull trigger
- RES 1: $30.502 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug 8 bear leg
- PRICE: $29.498 @ 08:07 BST Aug 30
- SUP 1: $29.002/26.451- 50-day EMA / Low Aug 8
- SUP 2: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
- SUP 3: $24.328 - Low Mar 27
- SUP 4: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
A medium-term bearish cycle in Silver remains intact and recent gains appear to be a correction - for now. The metal on Aug 8, traded to a fresh cycle low (before rebounding) and this has exposed key support at $26.018, May 2 low. However, note that the 50-day EMA has been cleared and is a concern for bears. A continuation higher would cancel the bearish theme and expose $30.502 next, a Fibonacci retracement.
MNI (LONDON)