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US DATA: Broadening In Inflation Depth In February

US DATA
USEM BulletFixed Income BulletsData BulletBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange BulletsNorth America
  • MNI calculations suggest that 34% of the overall CPI basket increased at 3% Y/Y or higher in February, compared to 30% in January for the highest share since May 2024.
  • It pushes it away from the 24% averaged in 2019 and 19% through 2015-19, with that historical wedge still firmly driven by services.
  • Details suggest February’s uptick is a reasonably broad move. The same share specifically for core goods increased from 13% to 19% (highest since Apr 2024), whilst core services increased from 55% to 63% (highest since Nov 2024).
  • These are volatile metrics, especially for core services recently, but they’re reasonable increases ahead of tariff implementation. Closer to 35% of the core services basket was running at or faster than 3% Y/Y in the years leading up to the pandemic.
  • See the below charts for clearer context: 
image
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  • MNI calculations suggest that 34% of the overall CPI basket increased at 3% Y/Y or higher in February, compared to 30% in January for the highest share since May 2024.
  • It pushes it away from the 24% averaged in 2019 and 19% through 2015-19, with that historical wedge still firmly driven by services.
  • Details suggest February’s uptick is a reasonably broad move. The same share specifically for core goods increased from 13% to 19% (highest since Apr 2024), whilst core services increased from 55% to 63% (highest since Nov 2024).
  • These are volatile metrics, especially for core services recently, but they’re reasonable increases ahead of tariff implementation. Closer to 35% of the core services basket was running at or faster than 3% Y/Y in the years leading up to the pandemic.
  • See the below charts for clearer context: 
image