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Building Permits Disappoint But Still More Resilient Than Sales

CANADA DATA
  • Building permits were weaker than expected in October, surprisingly falling -1.4% M/M (cons. +7.9%) as they made no recovery after sliding -17.5% in Sept.
  • The moves were again driven by residential permits (both single dwelling and multi-unit) with the volatile data, primarily in value terms, supporting the prior decline in housing starts volumes.
  • In both cases, starts/permits have been far more resilient than home sales so far this year and, until they see a further adjustment lower, suggest we’ve seen the worst of the hit to GDP from residential investment, at least directly, having dragged -1.1pps from Y/Y real GDP growth in Q2 before -0.6pps in Q3.


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