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Building Permits Slump But With Caveats

CANADA DATA
  • Values of building permits surprisingly slumped -18.8% M/M in April (cons -5%) after a slightly upward revised 12.3% M/M (initial 11.3%).
  • It registered the largest single monthly decline since 2007, with volatility again coming from the non-residential component tumbling -34.6% after +35.9% in March at what had been the strongest monthly increase on record.
  • "On a seasonally unadjusted basis, the average commercial permit was valued at $433k in April compared with $901k in March. Similarly, the average industrial permit was valued at $413k in April compared with $1.7 million in March."
  • Looking at single family residential permits for a better sense of underlying trend, permits continued a renewed downtrend, falling -3.6% M/M after -4%, although it’s in contrast to the latest uptick in volumes for both housing starts and existing home sales also in April.
  • As it is, the particularly heavy -1.4pp drag from residential investment on real GDP Y/Y growth in Q1 is larger than what either starts or permits would imply on a historical basis.
  • USDCAD lifted 15 pips on the release but only back further into yesterday’s range having already climbed off earlier session lows.

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