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Earlier today Bulgaria's President Rumen Radev announced the dissolution of parliament and called snap legislative elections for 11 July. The move comes after none of the parties elected in the 4 April general election were able to cobble together a majority in parliament.

Chart 1. Bulgarian Parliament after 4 April Election

Source: Bulgarian Parliament, MNI

  • Only one opinion poll has been carried out since the April election, showing a swing towards the opposition parties ITN, BSP, DB and ISMV:
    • Market Links Poll: GERB: 23.2% (-2.6), ITN: 22.3% (+4.9), BSP: 18.1% (+3.3), DPS: 10.3% (=), DB: 13% (+3.7), ISMV: 6.5% (+1.9), VMRO-BND: 3.0% (-0.6). Fieldwork 16-23 Apr, 636 respondents, % chgs w/4 Apr Election.
  • There remains a major schism in Bulgarian politics, with PM Boyko Borisov's populist GERB remaining the largest party with a loyal base of support. However, the main upstart anti-corruption parties, now headed by former TV presenter Slavi Trifonov's 'There Is Such A People' (ITN) party, appear staunchly committed to ousting Borisov and GERB from power as well as not working with the centre-left Bulgarian Socialist Party, limiting the ability for parties to form a workable governing coalition.
  • As such, the evident political fragmentation in Bulgaria is like to sustain legislative gridlock in the country, which continues to deal with one of the most severe COVID-19 outbreaks in the EU in per capita terms.