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Bull Flattening On External Factors, US Data In Play Later

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have seen a bull flattening so far today, coming as the front end to belly trades off highs whilst the long end and very long end in particular press towards highs as oil slides. Cleveland Fed’s Mester (’24 voter) sees no compelling reason for a June pause but on balance softer implications for Eurozone core inflation and another round of weaker data out of China in the shape of official PMIs weigh.
  • No real reaction to Bloomberg recently reporting House GOP debt limit negotiator McHenry saying we have the votes to pass the debt-limit bill today.
  • US data should help set the tone later in the session, first with the MNI Chicago PMI and then JOLTS, referenced by Richmond Fed’s Barkin (’24 voter) as the data he’s looking to this week along of course with payrolls on Friday. Heavy Fedspeak is also on the docket.
  • 2YY -2.5bp at 4.425%, 5YY -3.5bp at 3.772%, 10YY -3.8bp at 3.648%, 30YY -3.3bp at 3.857%.
  • Following the roll, TYU3 trades 10+ ticks higher at 114-11+, off an earlier high of 114-14+ that forms initial resistance. With yesterday's price pattern a bullish engulfing candle, attention is on further resistance at the 20-day EMA of 114-29+ and ultimately 115-07+ (50-day EMA), whilst to the downside sits support at 114-00 (intraday low).
  • Data: Weekly MBA mortgage data (0700ET), MNI Chicago PMI May (0945ET), JOLTS Apr (1000ET), Dallas Fed Services May (1030ET)
  • Fedspeak: Collins & Bowman (0850ET), Collins (1220ET), Harker (1330ET), Jefferson (1330ET), Beige Book (1400ET).
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $44B 17W Bill auction – 1130ET
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