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Bull Flattening Sees TYU3 Climb But Still In Bearish Technical Conditions

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have bull flattened through Asia and Europe sessions, with the rally extending yesterday’s second half moves that had been helped by a large fall in Manheim used vehicle prices. Fresh China property market support nor a second increase in US NFIB pricing intentions have had much cheapening bias on the space.
  • The day's rally is aided by block buying flow in FV through UXY futures, after Monday's activity saw longs added/shorts trimmed in the TU through US segment of the curve (per OI data), while WN futures saw a reduction in existing longs.
  • It leaves cash benchmarks trading 2-3bps richer on the day, with 2s10s 1bp lower at -87bps.
  • TYU3 trades 8 ticks higher at 111-12+ off best levels of 111-16 with elevated cumulative volumes of 320k. If bulls manage to cement the break above initial resistance it will allow them to switch their focus to the June 14 low (112-12+). A break there is needed to start turning the technical tide more in the favour of bulls, with a downtrend in play and moving average studies in bear mode.
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $40B 3Y Note auctions (91282CHM6) – 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: 1130 US Tsy $38B 52W Bill, $50B 42D CMB auctions – 1130ET
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