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Bull Flattening With Headlines/Flow Likely To Dictate Session

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys trade unchanged to 3bp richer, lagging a bid in European FI. There appears little by way of new drivers, with continued focus on Chinese equity weakness and geopolitical worry centred on the Middle East already established during the Asia-Pac session.
  • The bull flattening sees 2s10s at -29bps (-3bp from Friday’s close), pulling further back from last week’s high of -15bps.
  • TYH4 has pushed to session highs of 111-15 (+10) for a continuation of a lift from Friday’s low of 110-26. That bear threat remains present and marks initial support, whilst resistance is seen at 111-26 (20-day EMA) after which lies 112-26+ (Jan 12 high).
  • Late on Friday, both JPM and MS recommended longs in 5Y Tsys. Flow and broader headlines are likely to continue dictate today, with a particularly light docket consisting of the Conf. Board Leading Index and bill issuance. The FOMC is now in media blackout, whilst supply comes more into focus later this week with 3, 5 and 7-year Tsy auctions.
  • Data: Conf Board Leading Index, Dec (1000ET).
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $77B 13W, $70B 26W Bill auctions (1130ET).
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