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Bull Steepening As Growth Fears Come To The Fore

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have seen a sizeable bull steepening today, with front-end yields down 11-13bps and the 5Y of note having earlier touched new highs since Sep-2008 prior to the US coming in and risk sentiment souring.
  • Growth fears have dominated, with hiking expectations sliding accordingly – they keep to just over 50bps priced for the next FOMC in June but no longer fully price in 2x50bps come July (97.5bps) and are down 14bps over the five meetings to year-end with 185bps.
  • 2YY -12.9bps at 2.604%, 5YY -11.1bps at 2.966%, 10YY -6.1bps at 3.065%, 30YY -3.5bps at 3.190%.
  • TYM2 sits 16 ticks higher at 118-09+ on above average volumes for the day but with the pace slowing of late. Resistance is eyed at the 20-day EMA of 119-17 whilst support is seen at the early intraday and fresh cycle low of 117-08+.
  • Data: The latest estimate for Atlanta Fed GDPNow was trimmed in Q2 from 2.16% to 1.85%, back closer to where it was in early indicators. Little of note on tomorrow’s docket before the event of the week on Wed with CPI for April.
  • Issuance: Only bill issuance today with the 13-w seeing a high yield of 0.9% (b/c 3.18) and the 26-w seeing 1.385% and 2.72. Return to bond issuance tomorrow with the 3Y.
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