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Bull Steepening With Banking Regulation and Issuance In Focus Ahead

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys bull steepen in a reversal of yesterday’s bear flattening, with 2Y yields slipping from an intraday high of 4.115% in Asia hours to currently 4.025% as Fed rate expectations cool and a further hike in May is now seen as a less than a 50/50 shot.
  • Banking discussions likely continue to headline after WaPo reports Biden has indicated a push for new regulation of mid-sized banks and with regulatory focused Fedspeak today, along with focus later in the session on note issuance.
  • 2YY -5.3bps at 4.025%, 5YY -3.4bps at 3.630%, 10YY -2.5bps at 3.545% and 30YY -1.1bps at 3.759%. 2s10s -48bps.
  • TYM3 trades 4 ticks higher at 114-24+ off early lows of 114-14+ with one of the more subdued sessions for cumulative volumes of recent weeks at 260k. The bear threat is still present with support at the 20-day EMA of 114-05, whilst to the upside sits resistance at 115-07+ (Mar 28 high).
  • Data: MBA mortgage data (0700ET), Pending home sales for Feb (1000ET)
  • Fedspeak: NY Fed Head of Supervision Dobbeck (0805ET), VC Supervision Barr (0830ET on community reinvt act, 1000ET at House)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $22B 2Y Note FRN (91282CGF2) at 1130ET, $35B 7Y Note auction (91282CGS4) at 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: $36B 17W auctions at 1130ET
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