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Bullish Momentum Persists For CEEMEA FX in May (except TRY)

EMERGING MARKETS
  • To the exception of the TRY, which has depreciated by 1.6% against the USD, other CEEMEA currencies are all up (so far) since the beginning of May.
  • The best performer is HUF, which experienced a significant appreciation following NBH deputy governor Virag comments on Monday that central bank should prepare for rate hike as inflation risks have risen in recent months.
  • CZK also continues to trend higher as CNB prepares for tightening cycle; first hike is priced in for as early as August.
  • PLN has been also trending higher this month amid rising disagreements between NBP policymakers over the trajectory of ST rates.
  • The appreciation of CEE currencies gives policymakers a 'breather' as weakening exchange rates could have forced central bankers to start a tightening cycle earlier than expected in order to curb inflationary pressures, which could have weighed on the economic recovery.
  • Momentum on the ZAR remains firm in this current 'risk on' environment, with the currency up 3.2% in May against the greenback.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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