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Bullish Technical Impulses Extend On UK CPI & Hawkish BoE Repricing

GBP
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GBP the early outperformer following the UK CPI data and hawkish repricing in BoE-dated OIS, although the initial knee-jerk move has faded from extremes.

  • A reminder that GBP STIR markets are pricing roughly 1.5x 25bp cuts through year end vs. a little over 2x at yesterday’s close.
  • Cable looks through the 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8-Apr 22 bear leg (1.2754), printing as high as 1.2761 before fading back to ~1.2745. Next meaningful resistance on any extension higher comes in at the Mar 21 high (1.2801), with the recent bullish cycle extending.
  • EUR/GBP trades as low as 0.8512, through initial support at the April 30 low (0.8531). This confirms an extension of the recent bearish reversal, with next support at the Mar 8 low (0.8504).
  • GBP/CHF trades as high as 1.1645, extending yesterday’s move through the Oct ’22 highs. Next resistance comes in at the 4 August ’22 high (1.1718).
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GBP the early outperformer following the UK CPI data and hawkish repricing in BoE-dated OIS, although the initial knee-jerk move has faded from extremes.

  • A reminder that GBP STIR markets are pricing roughly 1.5x 25bp cuts through year end vs. a little over 2x at yesterday’s close.
  • Cable looks through the 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8-Apr 22 bear leg (1.2754), printing as high as 1.2761 before fading back to ~1.2745. Next meaningful resistance on any extension higher comes in at the Mar 21 high (1.2801), with the recent bullish cycle extending.
  • EUR/GBP trades as low as 0.8512, through initial support at the April 30 low (0.8531). This confirms an extension of the recent bearish reversal, with next support at the Mar 8 low (0.8504).
  • GBP/CHF trades as high as 1.1645, extending yesterday’s move through the Oct ’22 highs. Next resistance comes in at the 4 August ’22 high (1.1718).