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Bunds Unable To Breach Feb 7 High Post Payrolls

EGBS

Bunds take the lead from USTs, where undershoots in AHE and the unemployment rate, alongside prior month's revisions, have gained the most attention.

  • After reaching a low of 133.50 following the payrolls beat, Bunds rebounded but were unable to breach the Feb 7 high of 134.18, reaching an intraday high of 134.15.
  • Bunds are +53 ticks at 133.87 at typing.
  • STIRs have led the rally, with the Dec-24 Euribor future now trading at its highest since Feb 21. Futures are +1.0 to +9.5 ticks through the blues, with the front of the reds leading.
  • ECB implied rates through the April and June meetings were little changed post-data (still ~4bps priced through April and ~25bps through June), though December '24 pricing has extended a touch to 105bps of cuts (vs around 103bps pre-data).

Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Apr-243.865-4.3
Jun-243.652-25.6
Jul-243.466-44.2
Sep-243.233-67.5
Oct-243.050-85.8
Dec-242.859-104.9
Jan-252.715-119.3
Source: MNI/Bloomberg

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