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Business Sentiment Steady, Along With Export Expectations, Price Indices Rise From Low Base

SOUTH KOREA

Earlier data showed steady manufacturing and non-manufacturing business sentiment for September. The manufacturing print was at 69, which is above early 2023 lows but down from June highs of 73. The index is still suggesting some improvement in y/y GDP momentum, albeit from a low base. The non-manufacturing index printed at 76, which is also above earlier 2023 lows but down off mid-year highs.

  • Both indicators are suggesting some improvement in the growth backdrop, but are well below 2022 levels.
  • In terms of the detail, most sub-indices were unchanged or near August levels. On the domestic side, sale expectations nudged down a touch, while production eased to 78 from 82.
  • Raw material prices rose to 109, but are coming from a low base. Sale prices also firmed but again from a low base.
  • Export expectations were unchanged at 66, see the chart below of this measure against South Korean y/y export growth. The authorities continue to express optimism around the export outlook as we progress through H2.

Fig 1: Manufacturers Export Expectations & South Korea Export Growth Y/Y


Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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