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Busy Data Docket, Notable CNH Weakness Persisting Into US Session

LATAM
  • A busy docket for Brazil on Tuesday with consumer confidence, current account balance and February retail sales data all scheduled. Additionally, February economic activity data from Mexico will act as a pre-cursor to Friday’s Q1 GDP figures.
  • Following another negative regional close for China and Hong Kong equities, weakness across CNH and CNY persists into the US session, tipping USD/CNH to the highest level since mid-March. The pair has now printed seven consecutive sessions of higher lows, and is narrowing the gap with 6.9506, the 200-day moving average.
  • US Earnings - Quarterly Cycle Reaches Crescendo: Reports are persistent across the week, but today is likely the most notable session for the index, as Alphabet, McDonald’s, Microsoft, PepsiCo and Visa are all due. Notably, shares in US regional lenders have fallen in premarket trading, after peer First Republic reported a slump in deposits that was worse than expected, sparking worries that the bank is still contending with challenges even after receiving $30 billion of support from some of the biggest lenders in the US.
  • Comments from ECB chief economist Lane, via an interview with le Monde, aren't a needle mover at first glance. Lane points to the need for a hike at next month's monetary policy meeting (without prescribing a specific increment), with that meeting not presenting the time to pause when it comes to rate hikes. He also reaffirmed that data-dependence will drive decisions beyond the May meeting, while playing down similarities to 1970's style inflation.
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