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Busy Docket Next Week

CHINA

Some key data points released from China next week. Proceedings kick off on Monday January 18 with China's GDP report for Q4 2020. Markets will also digest industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment on Monday.

  • ING says: "We believe the export-led recovery gained further traction in the last quarter, keeping GDP growth on a steady upward path. Export growth nearly doubled to 17% year-on-year in 4Q20 from 8.9% in 3Q. This should outweigh any possible softening of domestic demand due to the renewed virus threat. We consider our 5.5% YoY house view of 4Q GDP growth, up from 4.9% in 3Q, subject to an upside surprise."
  • On Retail Sales Morgan Stanley says: "We expect December retail sales growth to accelerate further to 5.5% YoY (vs.5% in Nov). Besides higher inflation, stronger commodity sales, supported by ongoing improvements in the job market, likely outweighed moderation in catering amid several domestic COVID-19 clusters."
  • The PBOC is also due to review its prime lending rates on Wednesday January 20. Current market consensus is for no changes to the benchmark 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rate, which currently sit at 3.85% and 4.65%, respectively.
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