Busy Week With The RBA The Focus

This week features a range of economic data and central bank activity. It is going to be an important week for gauging the economic outlook and the path the RBA is on.

• Today there will be retail sales for September, which are expected to rise 0.4% m/m after 0.6% in August. Q3 sales volumes are published on Friday and forecast to rise 0.4% q/q. There is also the Melbourne Institute inflation measure for October today and the RBA’s private credit measures for September.
• The RBA meeting on Tuesday is likely to be the focus of the week. Economists widely expect a 25bp hike to 2.85% but 3 of the 26 surveyed by Bloomberg are forecasting 50bp. Then at 1920 AEDT Governor Lowe speaks at the Reserve Bank Board Dinner with the business community.
• Building approvals for September are released on Wednesday and expected to fall 10% m/m but this series is notoriously volatile. The September lending indicators are also published and the value of home loans is forecast to fall a further 3% m/m.
• On Thursday, September trade account data print and the trade balance should widen to A$9000mn with exports rising 1% and imports 3% m/m.
• The RBA rounds off the week with its Head of Domestic Markets Kearns speaking on “Wholesale Market Conditions and Resilience” at 1600 AEDT on Thursday. Then on Friday the RBA publishes updated forecasts in its Statement on Monetary Policy.