MNI BRIEF: Japan Corp Loan Demand Rises - BOJ Survey

MNI BRIEF: Japan June Exports Rise Despite Slow Auto Shipments

FED'S BARKIN: LOOKING FOR MORE EVIDENCE OF INFLATION'S DECLINE

MNI BRIEF: China Equip't Renewal Policy Includes Foreign Firms

MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, July 17

MNI China Press Digest July 17:  Investment, LPR, H2 Priority

MNI: JAPAN JUNE EXPORTS +5.4% Y/Y; MAY +13.5%

US Treasury Auction Calendar

Broad-based Softening In June Underlying Inflation Metrics

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

... But Lack Of Track Record Means Market Reaction Debatable (2/2)

US DATA
While an outsized August ADP figure today could move markets, given sensitivity to the Fed's data-dependent mantra ahead of September's (likely 50 vs 75bp hike) rate decision, the release is likely to be received with curiosity more than anything.
  • While the new pay data fills a gap in the market, it will take time before the jobs estimate can be assessed as a predictor of NFPs. Sell-side expectations on this front are mixed.
  • JPM analysts think "we will have to gauge the accuracy of these new estimates over time, particularly with respect to how they perform in real-time (before revisions and adjustments can align the ADP and BLS estimates)."
  • Scotia writes the new ADP "may be treated skeptically by markets because of its track record and because it will take time for its revamped methodology to be assessed for accuracy in tracking nonfarm payrolls."
  • Conversely, ING writes "It will be interesting to see whether the alleged higher accuracy of the new ADP index will trigger a larger-than-normal market reaction."
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.