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CAD Outperforms Ahead Of BoC, Buoyed By Oil and Higher Yields

CANADA
  • USDCAD has seen some volatility today but the main takeaway has been CAD outperformance on crosses.
  • It’s a factor of WTI keeping a large part of its gains following supply cut extensions and broader USD strength from higher Treasury yields (and with GoCs actually even underperforming Tsys with 2YY currently +11bps from Friday).
  • USDCAD trades at circa 1.363, within session ranges having pulled off an early high of 1.367 that saw the pair clear resistance around 1.364 in recent weeks to punch through a key 1.3655 (May 26 high) and open 1.3724 (trendline resistance drawn from Oct 13, 2022 high).
  • Tomorrow of course sees the BoC decision at 1000ET where there should be focus on what aspects of mixed data the BoC puts weight on, but we also see important data for labor productivity in Q2 after its recent torrid trend.
  • This decision lands with a heavy $1.59B of option expiry at 1.3600 and $495m at 1.3625 for tomorrow’s NY cut.
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