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CAD Outperforms Most After Post-Data Gyrations

CANADA
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  • USDCAD at ~1.357 sits in the middle of the day’s range. It’s a range defined by either side of 0830ET and subsequent data which included CAD GDP and a string of US releases including broadly in line core PCE inflation but higher jobless claims and then a large miss for the MNI Chicago PMI and pending home sales.
  • Yesterday’s high of 1.3606 continues to mark initial resistance having cleared the bull trigger at 1.3586 (Feb 13 high).
  • Stronger than expected CAD GDP (Q4 1.0% vs cons 0.8 and 0.0 from Jan BoC MPR), despite softer domestic demand figures, plus some eventual net USD strength on the day, helps CAD outperform most of G10 FX on the day barring the JPY after a hawkish Takata.
  • Tomorrow sees all sizeable option expiries for the NY cut skewed lower but there aren’t any notable strikes near current spot. The US U.Mich and ISM manufacturing surveys lead the combined data docket.
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  • USDCAD at ~1.357 sits in the middle of the day’s range. It’s a range defined by either side of 0830ET and subsequent data which included CAD GDP and a string of US releases including broadly in line core PCE inflation but higher jobless claims and then a large miss for the MNI Chicago PMI and pending home sales.
  • Yesterday’s high of 1.3606 continues to mark initial resistance having cleared the bull trigger at 1.3586 (Feb 13 high).
  • Stronger than expected CAD GDP (Q4 1.0% vs cons 0.8 and 0.0 from Jan BoC MPR), despite softer domestic demand figures, plus some eventual net USD strength on the day, helps CAD outperform most of G10 FX on the day barring the JPY after a hawkish Takata.
  • Tomorrow sees all sizeable option expiries for the NY cut skewed lower but there aren’t any notable strikes near current spot. The US U.Mich and ISM manufacturing surveys lead the combined data docket.