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CAD Rates Holding Majority Of Large Rally On CPI

CANADA
  • GoCs have held their lift off highs but still see a strong rally on the day after a surprisingly soft CPI report with every main core measure (trim, median, CIPxFE & CPIX) moderating and the breadth of inflationary pressures narrowing.
  • They see a sizeable bull steepening, with 2Y yields 12.5bp lower on the day and the Can-US yield differential 8.5bp lower at -52.5bps.
  • BoC-dated OIS sees almost 20bp of cumulative cuts for June from closer to 12.5bp beforehand, whilst cumulative cuts for July have increased ~10bp of the day to 34bps.
  • Further out, 3-mth CORRA futures show 79bp of cuts through Mar-Dec’24 contracts, vs 68bps pre-CPI and 88bps before the Mar 6 BoC.
  • Analyst takes on CPI so far haven't yielded any formal view changes but some see a greater likelihood of a more notable dovish shift in guidance at the April BoC decision.

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