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CAD Sees A Decent Run Of Strength Into BoC Meeting [1/2]

CANADA
  • USDCAD is holding last week's push lower on a combination of stronger than expected GDP data, WTI oil prices recovering and general stock market resilience.
  • However, whilst currently in the low 1.34s, the pair is only -0.3% lower than lower than the day before the April 12 decision.
  • Relative CAD strength is clearer in trade weighted terms though, with both nominal and real effective exchange rates increasing more notably in the intervening period with the latter back near historical averages on a five-year rolling window. Despite the improvement, that still leaves CAD trading relatively weak compared to many peers on its own historical basis, but it comfortably outperforms another oil-reliant currency in NOK and has closed the gap with Antipodeans for other high beta competitors.
  • This firming over the past almost two months should have been offering a mild disinflationary impulse, but the BoC is likely cognizant to maintain hawkish guidance to prevent renewed depreciation and in turn making its inflation fight harder.



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