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Can-US Differential Falls On The Day But Still Sizeable Lift On The Week

CANADA
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  • GoCs have outperformed Tsys today after a more modest paring of earlier gains on US monthly PCE (another soft March indicator with ‘core’ wholesale sales indicated -1.3% M/M was perhaps partly to blame).
  • The 2Y GoC yield is 2bps lower on the day, with the Can-US 2Y yield differential also slipping 2bps to -67bps although it still sees a solid increase from the -74.3bps it ended last week despite the strength of US data.
  • BoC-dated OIS has shifted to imply 12-13bp of cuts at the next meeting in June vs 15-16bp at the start of the week.
  • Next week, expect spillover from the FOMC decision and payrolls, whilst the local docket is centred around monthly GDP on Tue before BoC’s Macklem and Rogers’ Senate appearance on Wed (text not until 1615ET).
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  • GoCs have outperformed Tsys today after a more modest paring of earlier gains on US monthly PCE (another soft March indicator with ‘core’ wholesale sales indicated -1.3% M/M was perhaps partly to blame).
  • The 2Y GoC yield is 2bps lower on the day, with the Can-US 2Y yield differential also slipping 2bps to -67bps although it still sees a solid increase from the -74.3bps it ended last week despite the strength of US data.
  • BoC-dated OIS has shifted to imply 12-13bp of cuts at the next meeting in June vs 15-16bp at the start of the week.
  • Next week, expect spillover from the FOMC decision and payrolls, whilst the local docket is centred around monthly GDP on Tue before BoC’s Macklem and Rogers’ Senate appearance on Wed (text not until 1615ET).